• Disruptions to shipping via the Suez Canal may impact the economy through two channels: prices and supply chains.
  • Key factors to watch are the duration of the stress and whether disruptions spread to energy goods.
  • With additional uncertainty around inflation, the ECB will be cautious in assessing the next steps.

Actionable ideas

  • Euro Money Market
    With the ECB deposit rate at 4.0%, Euro money markets are attractive. This will only last longer should geopolitical and other uncertainties lead the ECB to wait more before cutting.
     
  • Euro fixed income
    After dropping sharply at the end of 2023, Euro bond yields have rebounded in January, providing now better entry points for investors. An active approach is key as markets adjust their expectations on growth and inflation.

Key dates

31 Jan

FOMC Meeting

 

1 Feb

Caixin China PMI

 

2 Feb

EU CPI, Europzone
Manufacturing PMI

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